Irans armed proxies are ramping up pressure on key points in the Middle East as Tehran attempts to rebuild its regional influence, eroded by almost two years of a destructive Israeli military campaign.
Tehrans Houthi allies in Yemen ended months of calm in the Red Sea last week with strikes on two commercial ships travelling in the critical waterway. Proxies in Iraq are suspected of disrupting oil production in the Kurdish region, and shipments of hundreds of rockets bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon have been intercepted by Syrian forces over the past months.
The increasing activity by the proxies reflects Irans determination to continue supporting a network of disruptive armed groups C long seen as essential to Tehrans deterrence strategy, despite their failure to deter recent Israeli and American attacks on Iranian soil C ahead of possible talks with Washington to reach a new nuclear deal. But so far, neither the United States nor Iran appears to be willing to make major compromises.
Iran was never going to stop resupplying their groups, said Michael Knights, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute specializing in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran and the Gulf states.
They might not be able to send this much or regularly C more stuff might get intercepted C but if youre the (Iranian) Revolutionary Guards Quds Force right now, what youre trying to show is we still exist, were intact, nothing has changed.
Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran last month, targeting and killing key military figures, including the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami, critical to sustaining and expanding the Islamic Republics regional proxy network, and Behnam Shahriyari , who Israel says was responsible for weapons transfers to Tehrans proxies.
But even as Iran reels from the loss of key military figures, it has persisted in arming those proxies, signaling that it still views them as a strategic asset to expand its regional leverage.
Yemen
Just three days after a ceasefire was declared between Iran and Israel, a vessel carrying 750 tons of Iranian missiles and military equipment, including missiles, drone engines and radar systems, was intercepted in the Red Sea by forces loyal to Yemens exiled government, the United States Central Command said Wednesday. It added that the massive Iranian weapons shipment was destined for the Houthis.
The interception, according to the US military, marked the largest weapons seizure in the history of the Yemeni National Resistance Forces (NRF) C a pro-US, anti-Houthi group led by Tariq Saleh, the nephew of Yemens late leader Ali Abdullah Saleh.
The Iranian foreign ministry denied that it had sent weapons and called it a deceitful attempt by the US to divert public opinion.
The Houthis in Yemen have used Iranian weaponry to launch attacks on both Israel and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. An attack on a Greek-owned ship last week killed four crew members, injured others and left 11 people missing, the European Union naval operation Aspides told CNN. Six of those on board were captured by the Houthis, a UK-based maritime risk management company, Vanguard Tech, told CNN.
Days before that, the Houthis targeted a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier, the Magic Seas, using unmanned boats, missiles and drones.
The attacks, which sank the two vessels, appear to show an escalation of force and were the first recorded this year after months of calm in the busy waterway.
Iraq
Over the past few months, suspected Iran-backed groups have also increased their attacks on Western allies in Iraq, destabilizing oil output in the Kurdish-controlled region of the country.
Five oil fields, including two operated by US companies, were hit after a spate of drone attacks by criminal militias, Aziz Ahmad, an official in the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), said on Wednesday.
The KRG welcomed U.S. investment and companies. Now, those same investors are being pushed out in a calculated campaign to economically strangle us, Ahmad said on X.
The spokesperson for the KRG Peshawa Hawramani told CNN that the drone attacks are intended to destroy the energy infrastructure and to ensure that the KRG has no capacity to produce oil and gas, so it cannot use this as leverage in agreements or rely on it as a source of income.
The KRGs interior ministry blamed attacks earlier this month on the Popular Mobilization Units, a predominantly Shiite Iranian-backed paramilitary force based in Iraq .
These attacks are being carried out with the aim of creating chaos, the interior ministry said after a bomb-laden drone landed near the KRG capital Erbil earlier this month.
Lebanon
Irans regional influence has been substantially weakened since Hamas October 7, 2023 attack on Israel and Israels subsequent campaign to root out Tehrans proxies from the region.
Irans key ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah, sought to support Hamas after October 7 by firing cross-border rockets and opening a second front against Israel. Since then, the group has been severely weakened, losing its once-dominant influence in Lebanon and facing growing internal and Western demands to disarm, as its fighters are targeted by near-daily Israeli strikes.
The groups revered leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli strike last year and its key supply route in Syria was lost after the fall in December of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a crucial ally to Tehran.
Hezbollah are losing sway, theyve lost credibility with their own base. Of course, the Iranians are trying to reinforce some of their proxies to reinforce their negotiating hand, but theyre not making much headway, a regional official told CNN.
Still, another regional source told CNN that Hezbollah could begin regrouping itself over the coming weeks fearing an escalation from Israel. Hezbollah feels it is in an existential situation because of the loss of Syria and the growing internal Lebanese pressure, the source added.
Syria
Irans attempts to rearm Hezbollah have continued over the past year. The new Syrian government, which staunchly opposes Iran, has seized several shipments of weapons bound for Lebanon, according to the Syrian Interior Ministry.
Last month, the Syrian interior ministry said in a statement that it had foiled an attempt to smuggle anti-tank Kornet missiles, the same type used by Hezbollah to target Israeli tanks in southern Lebanon. The Syrian police said the weapons were hidden in a truck carrying vegetables in the Homs countryside, which borders Lebanon.
The first regional source who spoke to CNN questioned Tehrans purpose in arming proxy groups who had proven ineffective in protecting Iran, or achieving their stated mission of liberating Jerusalem.
Why are Hezbollah still arming? What have their arms given them? It has not given them protection, it has not brought them an inch closer to Jerusalem? What are these arms doing except causing misery to a civilian population? the source said.
Trump in no rush to talk
Irans rearming of groups across the Middle East comes as US President Donald Trump signals his waning interest in negotiations with Tehran.
They want to negotiate badly. Were in no rush we bombed the hell out of their various places, if they want to negotiate, we are here, Trump said Wednesday.
Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Irans Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, dismissed the idea that talks were imminent and downplayed their importance.
Right now is not the time for talks. Negotiations are a tactic we wait and see if the Supreme Leader finds it useful or not, Larijani said in a televised statement on Friday.
A sixth round of negotiations was scheduled June 15, but Israels surprise attack the day prior disrupted the plans.
Experts say rebuilding regional armed groups and showcasing their disruptive capabilities could serve as leverage for Iran, as it looks to negotiate from a position of strength despite its recent losses.
It will strengthen their hand, in theory, to show that they are not just rolling over and subservient they want to appear defiant but not enough that the US hits them, Knights said.
随着德黑兰试图重建其因以色列长达近两年的破坏性军事行动而削弱的地区影响力，伊朗的武装代理势力正在中东关键节点加大施压力度。
也门的胡塞武装作为德黑兰的盟友，上周对红海这一关键水道上的两艘商船发动袭击，打破了该地区数月来的平静。伊拉克境内的代理人组织被怀疑破坏了库尔德地区的石油生产，而过去几个月里，叙利亚军方还截获了数百枚运往黎巴嫩真主党的火箭弹。
代理人活动的增加反映出伊朗决心继续支持破坏性武装组织网络——这些组织长期以来被视为德黑兰威慑战略的关键，尽管它们未能阻止近期以色列和美国对伊朗领土的袭击——而伊朗可能即将与华盛顿展开谈判以达成新的核协议。但到目前为止，美国和伊朗似乎都不愿做出重大妥协。
华盛顿研究所高级研究员迈克尔·奈茨（Michael Knights）表示：“伊朗从未打算停止对其盟友组织的物资补给。”该研究所专注于伊拉克、伊朗及海湾国家的军事与安全事务研究。
他们或许无法如此频繁或定期地发送这么多物资——更多物资可能会被拦截——但如果你现在是（伊朗）革命卫队圣城军，你想要展示的是“我们依然存在，我们完好无损，一切如故”。
以色列上月对伊朗发动了前所未有的袭击，目标锁定并击毙了数名关键军事人物，其中包括伊斯兰革命卫队司令侯赛因·萨拉米——他被视为维系和扩大伊朗伊斯兰共和国地区代理人网络的核心人物，以及以色列声称负责向德黑兰代理人转移武器的贝赫纳姆·沙赫里亚里。
尽管伊朗因失去关键军事人物而遭受重创，该国仍持续向这些代理人武装提供武器，这表明伊朗仍将其视为扩大地区影响力的战略资产。
也门
美国中央司令部周三表示，在伊朗和以色列宣布停火仅三天后，一艘载有750吨伊朗导弹及军事装备（包括导弹、无人机发动机和雷达系统）的船只，在红海被效忠于也门流亡政府的部队截获。该司令部补充称，这批"数量庞大的伊朗武器"是运往胡塞武装的。
据美军方称，此次拦截行动标志着也门国家抵抗军（NRF）——一个由已故也门领导人阿里·阿卜杜拉·萨利赫的侄子塔里克·萨利赫领导的亲美反胡塞组织——在其历史上缴获了“最大规模的武器”.
伊朗外交部否认曾运送武器，并称这是美国试图转移公众注意力的欺骗性行为。
也门胡塞武装使用伊朗提供的武器，对以色列及红海商船发动袭击。欧盟海军行动"阿斯皮德斯"向CNN透露，上周一艘希腊籍货轮遇袭，造成4名船员死亡、多人受伤，另有11人失踪。英国海上风险管理公司Vanguard Tech向CNN表示，船上另有6人被胡塞武装俘获。
在此前几天，胡塞武装曾使用无人艇、导弹和无人机袭击了一艘利比里亚籍散货船“魔力海”号。
此次袭击导致两艘船只沉没，似乎显示出武力升级的迹象，且是这条繁忙水道在数月平静后今年首次记录到的袭击事件。
伊拉克
过去数月间，疑似受伊朗支持的武装组织加大了对伊拉克境内西方盟友的袭击力度，导致该国库尔德自治区石油产量陷入动荡。
库尔德地区政府（KRG）官员阿齐兹·艾哈迈德周三表示，五处油田遭到“犯罪民兵组织”“一连串无人机袭击”，其中包括两家美国公司运营的油田。
库尔德自治区（KRG）曾欢迎美国投资和企业入驻。而现在，这些投资者正被有计划地排挤出去，意图在经济上扼杀我们。艾哈迈德在X平台上发文称。
库尔德自治区政府发言人佩沙瓦·哈拉马尼向CNN表示，此次无人机袭击旨在摧毁能源基础设施，以确保库尔德自治区丧失石油和天然气生产能力，从而无法将其作为协议谈判筹码或收入来源。
库尔德自治区内政部将本月早些时候的袭击事件归咎于"人民动员组织"——这是一个以什叶派为主、受伊朗支持、驻扎在伊拉克的准军事力量。
伊拉克内政部表示，本月早些时候一架载有爆炸物的无人机在库尔德自治区（KRG）首府埃尔比勒附近坠落后，这些袭击行动旨在制造混乱。
黎巴嫩
自哈马斯2023年10月7日袭击以色列及随后以色列展开清除德黑兰在该地区代理势力的行动以来，伊朗的地区影响力已大幅削弱。
伊朗在黎巴嫩的重要盟友真主党，在10月7日后通过发射跨境火箭弹并开辟对抗以色列的第二战线，试图支持哈马斯。此后，该组织实力严重削弱，丧失了在黎巴嫩一度占据主导地位的影响力，同时面临日益增长的国内及西方要求其解除武装的压力，其武装人员几乎每日都成为以色列空袭的目标。
该组织备受尊敬的领袖哈桑·纳斯鲁拉去年在以色列的一次空袭中丧生，而其位于叙利亚的关键补给路线也在12月叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德（德黑兰的重要盟友）政权垮台后丧失。
一位地区官员向CNN表示："真主党正在丧失影响力，其支持基础已对其失去信任。尽管伊朗正试图加强其代理人力量以增强谈判筹码，但进展甚微。"
然而，另有地区消息人士向CNN透露，由于担心以色列局势升级，真主党可能在未来几周内开始“重新集结”。该消息人士补充称，由于失去叙利亚的支持以及黎巴嫩国内压力日益增大，真主党认为自身正面临“生死存亡的境地”。
叙利亚
过去一年间，伊朗持续试图为黎巴嫩真主党提供武器补给。据叙利亚内政部称，坚决反对伊朗的新一届叙利亚政府已截获多批运往黎巴嫩的武器。
叙利亚内政部上月发表声明称，其挫败了一起走私反坦克"短号"导弹的企图，该型号导弹与黎巴嫩真主党在黎南部袭击以色列坦克时使用的类型相同。叙利亚警方表示，这批武器被藏匿在与黎巴嫩接壤的霍姆斯省农村地区一辆运送蔬菜的卡车中。
首位接受美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）采访的地区消息人士质疑德黑兰武装代理组织的意图——这些组织既未能有效保护伊朗，也未能实现其宣称的“解放耶路撒冷”使命。
真主党为何仍在武装？他们的武器给他们带来了什么？既未能提供保护，也未能让他们更接近耶路撒冷一寸。这些武器除了给平民带来苦难，还有什么作用？
特朗普“不急于”进行对话
伊朗重新武装中东各地组织的举动，正值美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表现出对与德黑兰谈判的兴趣减弱之际。
特朗普周三表示：“他们迫切想要谈判。但我们不着急——我们已经对他们的多个据点进行了猛烈轰炸。如果他们想谈，我们随时奉陪。”
伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的高级顾问阿里·拉里贾尼驳斥了即将进行谈判的说法，并淡化了谈判的重要性。
拉里贾尼周五在电视声明中表示："目前不是谈判的时机。谈判只是一种策略——我们要静观最高领袖是否认为它有用。"
第六轮谈判原定于6月15日举行，但以色列在前一天发动的突然袭击打乱了这一计划。
专家表示，伊朗在近期遭受损失的情况下仍试图以强势姿态进行谈判，重建地区武装组织并展示其破坏能力或可成为其谈判筹码。
奈茨表示：“从理论上讲，这将增强他们的底气，表明他们并非一味屈服顺从——他们希望展现出反抗姿态，但又不至于激怒美国招致打击。”
